PROACTIVE AI RISK MANAGEMENT. THE SECOND AI ARMS RACE: FROM DEREGULATION TO INDUSTRIAL POLICY, SOVEREIGN INFRASTRUCTURES, AND ALGORITHMIC WARFARE

Alexey V. Amenitsky
Saint Petersburg State Electrotechnical University “LETI”, Saint Petersburg, Russia,
ORCID ID: 0009-0004-0955-1527

Evgeny G. Vorobyov
Saint Petersburg State Electrotechnical University “LETI”, Saint Petersburg, Russia,
ORCID ID: 0000-0003-0564-5935

DOI: 10.36724/2664-066X-2025-11-5-28-33

SYNCHROINFO JOURNAL. Volume 11, Number 5 (2025). P. 28-33.

Abstract

The global competition in artificial intelligence (AI) has entered a qualitatively new phase – what this article terms the second AI arms race (AI Arms Race 2.0). Moving beyond early narratives of innovation and deregulation, this stage is characterized by the deliberate fusion of economic and national security agendas, large-scale state-industrial coordination, and the militarization of foundational AI models. Drawing on primary policy documents, corporate disclosures, and expert analyses from 2023–2025, we identify three systemic shifts: (1) the transition from market-led to state-directed AI industrial policy, exemplified by U.S. export controls, sovereign AI initiatives in the EU, and China’s techno-strategic autonomy drive; (2) the collapse of the “anti-military AI consensus” among major technology firms, with OpenAI, Google, and Meta now explicitly permitting – and even advocating – the use of their models in defense and surveillance applications; and (3) the emergence of algorithmic warfare, where AI agents execute cyber operations at machine speed, raising unprecedented challenges for attribution, escalation control, and defensive equity. We argue that this new race is less about raw model performance and more about infrastructural sovereignty, data geopolitics, and the institutional capture of AI governance. Crucially, the “arms race” framing – while real in strategic terms – also functions as a discursive tool to depoliticize regulation and consolidate power among a narrow set of corporate-state actors. The article concludes with a normative framework for human-centered AI arms control, grounded in transparency, multilateral verification, and the protection of open innovation ecosystems.

Keywords:  artificial intelligence; AI arms race; AI industrial policy; sovereign AI; autonomous weapons; algorithmic warfare; AI nationalism; export controls; cybersecurity; AI governance

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